From Boom to Balance: How Edmonton's Housing Market Is Normalizing After the Surge

Edmonton's real estate market has been on a wild ride. Between 2023 and early 2024, prices climbed, inventory tightened, and bidding wars became the norm. Buyers scrambled to secure properties, while sellers enjoyed a rare moment of leverage. But the frenzy didn't last forever.

Now, as we move through 2025 and look ahead to 2026, the market is showing clear signs of stabilization. Prices are leveling off, listings are increasing, and the urgency that once defined home buying in Edmonton is fading. For anyone navigating this shift—whether you're thinking about buying your first home, selling an investment property, or simply trying to understand what's happening—this is the moment to pay attention.

So what does "normal" look like for Edmonton's real estate market? And how did we get here? Let's break it down.

The 2023–2024 Surge: What Happened?

To understand where Edmonton's housing market is headed, it helps to look back at how we got here.

In 2023, Edmonton experienced a significant uptick in home prices and sales activity. According to the Realtors Association of Edmonton, the average residential sale price rose by approximately 7% year-over-year, with benchmark single-family home prices reaching around $425,000 by mid-2024. Inventory levels dropped to historic lows, with the months of supply hovering between 1.5 and 2 months—well below the balanced market threshold of 3 to 4 months.

Several factors fueled this surge. Interprovincial migration played a major role, as workers from higher-cost provinces like British Columbia and Ontario relocated to Alberta for more affordable housing and employment opportunities. Edmonton's relatively low cost of living and strong job market made it an attractive destination.

At the same time, interest rates began to rise as the Bank of Canada worked to curb inflation. Paradoxically, this created a sense of urgency among buyers who wanted to lock in purchases before rates climbed even higher. The result? A competitive seller's market characterized by multiple offers, quick sales, and prices that consistently exceeded asking.

But markets don't stay overheated forever.

What Does "Normal" Mean in Edmonton Real Estate?

The word "normal" gets thrown around a lot in real estate discussions, but what does it actually mean?

In Edmonton's context, a normalized market is one where supply and demand are relatively balanced. This typically means:

• Months of Inventory: Between 3 and 4 months of supply, giving buyers reasonable options without overwhelming the market with unsold homes.
• Price Growth: Moderate annual appreciation in the range of 2% to 4%, reflecting steady demand without speculative excess.
• Sales Volume: Consistent transaction activity that aligns with seasonal patterns and long-term averages.
• Time on Market: Homes selling within 30 to 45 days on average, rather than days or weeks.

As of early 2025, Edmonton is trending toward these benchmarks. Inventory has increased to roughly 2.8 months of supply, prices have plateaued, and the frantic pace of 2023 has given way to a more measured rhythm.

The Forces Behind Normalization

Several interconnected factors are driving this shift toward balance.

Interest Rate Stabilization

After aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022 and 2023, the Bank of Canada has signaled a pause in further increases. While rates remain elevated compared to the ultra-low environment of 2020–2021, the uncertainty around future hikes has diminished. This has reduced the urgency among buyers, allowing the market to cool.

Increased Housing Supply

Developers and builders have responded to demand by ramping up construction. New residential projects are completing at a faster pace, particularly in suburban areas like Summerside, Windermere, and Chappelle. This influx of new inventory is easing the pressure that defined the peak years.

Slower Migration

While Alberta remains an attractive destination, the rate of interprovincial migration has moderated. Some of the initial wave of relocations has subsided, and economic conditions in other provinces have stabilized, reducing the push factor for moves.

Affordability Concerns

Even in Edmonton, affordability has become a talking point. First-time buyers, in particular, are facing higher mortgage costs due to elevated interest rates. This has naturally tempered demand, especially at the lower end of the market.

What the Experts Are Saying

Edmonton real estate professionals and economists are cautiously optimistic about Edmonton's market trajectory.

Tom Shearer, Chief Economist at the Realtors Association of Edmonton, recently noted that the market is entering a "soft landing" phase. He emphasized that while the rapid growth of 2023 was unsustainable, the fundamentals supporting Edmonton's housing market remain strong. Job growth, diversification of the local economy, and ongoing infrastructure investment all point to continued stability.

Real estate agents on the ground report a noticeable shift in buyer behavior. Instead of rushing to make offers, buyers are taking their time to view multiple properties, negotiate terms, and secure financing without the fear of losing out. Sellers, meanwhile, are adjusting expectations and pricing homes more competitively to attract interest.

Advice for Buyers and Sellers

Whether you're looking to buy or sell in Edmonton, the current market offers opportunities—but only if you approach it strategically.

For Buyers

Take Your Time: The pressure to act immediately has eased. Use this to your advantage by thoroughly researching neighborhoods, comparing properties, and securing the best financing terms.

Get Pre-Approved: Even in a balanced market, having pre-approved financing strengthens your negotiating position and demonstrates seriousness to sellers.

Think Long-Term: Focus on properties that meet your needs for the next five to ten years. Short-term market fluctuations matter less when you're buying for the right reasons.

For Sellers

Price Competitively: Overpricing in a normalizing market can lead to extended time on market and eventual price reductions. Work with your agent to set a realistic asking price based on recent comparables.

Enhance Curb Appeal: With more inventory available, presentation matters. Simple improvements like fresh paint, landscaping, and decluttering can make a significant difference.

Be Flexible: Buyers in a balanced market have more negotiating power. Be prepared to consider reasonable offers and accommodate requests for inspections or closing timelines.

Looking Ahead to 2026

So what can we expect as we move into 2026?

Most forecasts suggest continued stabilization with modest price appreciation. Barring any major economic disruptions, Edmonton's housing market is likely to see annual price growth in the 2% to 3% range—healthy, but not excessive.

Inventory levels should remain balanced, providing options for buyers without creating downward pressure on prices. New construction will continue to play a role in meeting demand, particularly as the city's population grows.

Interest rates remain the wild card. If the Bank of Canada begins lowering rates in response to cooling inflation, we could see a modest uptick in buyer activity. However, any resurgence is unlikely to replicate the intensity of 2023.

Finding Stability in the Shift

Edmonton's housing market is no longer in boom mode, and that's not a bad thing. The normalization we're seeing reflects a market that's maturing, adjusting, and finding its footing after a period of rapid growth.

For buyers, this means more choice and less pressure. For sellers, it means recalibrating expectations and focusing on value. And for everyone watching from the sidelines, it's a reminder that real estate markets move in cycles—and understanding where we are in that cycle is the key to making smart decisions.

The surge is over, but the opportunity isn't. Edmonton's housing market is settling into a rhythm that favors those who approach it with patience, preparation, and perspective.